CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-11-04T01:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-11-04T01:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34402/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is visible in SOHO LASCO C3 after a data gap from 2024-11-04T02:18Z to 2024-11-04T05:43Z. The CME is associated with an M3.8 flare from AR 3883 (approximately S04E42) peaking at 2024-11-04T01:40Z. The eruption can be seen in all wavelengths of SDO AIA imagery, with brightening best seen in SDO AIA 131, dimming and EUV wave best seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-08T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Issued: 2024 Nov 05 1231 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 41105 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Nov 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 246 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 248 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 252 / AP: 011 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M5.59 flare (SIDC Flare 2498) peaking on November 04 at 15:41 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883). This active region is the most magnetically complex region on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. The second largest flare a M2.66 flare (SIDC Flare 2505) peaking on November 05 at 06:54 UTC was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 308 (NOAA Active Region 3886). A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 308 (NOAA Active Region 3886) has rotated on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 279 (NOAA Active Region 3880) has turned into a plague region. Four regions are expected to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in LASCO/C2 data at around 17:24 UTC on November 04 and was associated with a M5.59 flare (SIDC Flare 2498). Further analysis of the event is ongoing. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 UTC on November 04 shows a small chance of a glancing blow early on November 08.Lead Time: 63.75 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-11-05T10:15Z
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